815
FXUS01 KWBC 062006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 07 2023 - 00Z TUE MAY 09 2023
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN NIGH PLAINS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL
TWO-INCH OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL TWO-INCH OR GREATER WILL
BE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THREE REGIONS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO-INCH OR GREATER
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
ALSO, ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS ALSO
A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER
AND HAIL TWO-INCH OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CREATE RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, GREAT BASIN, AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE GREATEST
AREA COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE LATE EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME, DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WIND WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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