219
FXUS01 KWBC 072005
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT SUN MAY 07 2023
VALID 00Z MON MAY 08 2023 - 00Z WED MAY 10 2023
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, A
MARGINAL RISK IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A WAVY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL HAVE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO-INCH
OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO-INCH
OR GREATER WILL BE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER TWO REGIONS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON MONDAY. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, ON TUESDAY,
THE SPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE, ON TUESDAY, THE WPC ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER TWO REGIONS, THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CREATE RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, GREAT BASIN, AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME, DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WIND WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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