834
FXUS01 KWBC 081917
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2023
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 09 2023 - 00Z THU MAY 11 2023
...AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AND
COASTAL TEXAS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST, INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY, PRODUCING AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT.
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS, A STRONGER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
PUSH QUICKLY INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED TO CALIFORNIA OR THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND COASTAL TEXAS. SEVERAL WAVES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THESE REGION. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND COASTAL TEXAS, THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL, HOWEVER, TO
THE EAST OF AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS THAT REMAIN IN
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT FOR THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST COLORADO, THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN, ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WHERE HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY WHERE RAINS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.
ORAVEC
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