935
FXUS01 KWBC 090743
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2023
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 09 2023 - 12Z THU MAY 11 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHWEST...
AN ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
NATION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES. AS A RESULT, INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE CONSIDERED
LIKELY FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO AREAS INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TRIANGLE, WHICH INCLUDES THE ENTIRE
HOUSTON METRO REGION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAME AREA DUE THE EVENTUAL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO MORE OF EASTERN TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ORDER TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION ARE
ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF
RESIDING WITHIN A FLOOD-PRONE REGION. AS ALWAYS, BE SURE TO NEVER
DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
OF WHICH COULD TURN SEVERE. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS. FARTHER EAST, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS TODAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH EXITING THE
SOUTHWEST WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AND
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT WORK, WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-3" ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING,
SOUTHEAST MONTANA, AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH,
URBAN, AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM
OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST INTO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 9000 FEET THROUGHOUT WYOMING AND COLORADO, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW. MEANWHILE,
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM, STRONG WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN AFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH WARMTH SPREADING INTO
THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
BEFORE THE WARMTH RETURNS NORTHWARD, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH OUT OF THE 60S TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNTIL 80S ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page