564
FXUS01 KWBC 100743
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 12Z WED MAY 10 2023 - 12Z FRI MAY 12 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHWEST...
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL HAVE NO SHORTAGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING SPAN EACH DAY, WHILE INCLUDING A MAJORITY OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. STARTING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES AND LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
TEXAS-WESTERN LOUISIANA BORDER, INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SHREVEPORT
AND LAKE CHARLES, LA AS WELL AS HOUSTON, TX. URBAN REGIONS AND
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS WILL BE MOST AT RISK TO RAPID ONSET FLOODING, AS
WELL AS LOCATIONS THAT POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
ADVISED TO HEED ANY ISSUED WARNINGS AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A
FLOODED ROADWAY.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL HELP FUEL THE CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
TODAY AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE FOR THIS REGION WHILE
ALSO EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, POSSIBLY CONTAINING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. OTHER
ASPECTS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY
SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGHOUT COLORADO AND WYOMING, WHILE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE
PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST ON
THURSDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST AND INCLUDE
MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
STRETCH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS WELL,
WHICH COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE NEXT ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE LONE STAR STATE
IS SET TO ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. ALTHOUGH THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY IS DESIGNATED
AS BEING WITHIN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
CHANCES. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY.
ELSEWHERE, WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN U.S., STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INCLUDING MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THIS EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AS HIGH AS THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, WHICH EQUATES TO GENERAL ANOMALIES
UP TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SNELL
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