836
FXUS01 KWBC 101958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2023
VALID 00Z THU MAY 11 2023 - 00Z SAT MAY 13 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...WARM UP COMING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL HAVE NO SHORTAGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AS CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING SPAN EACH DAY, WHILE INCLUDING A MAJORITY OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INITIALLY FOCUSED ON THE ARKLATEX. THESE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WHILE EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER INTO THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT. A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO FUEL INTENSE, HEAVY RAIN
RATES ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY,
LEADING TO THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL HELP FUEL THE
CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT PLAINS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY,
PROMPTING A BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE FOR
THIS REGION WHILE ALSO EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INTRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED ON WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AS A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE AS WELL AS DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR HAS INCREASED CHANCES THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST. THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY LINGER
FURTHER WEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL LOCALLY FOR
MULTIPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON WET GROUND CONDITIONS
FROM THURSDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE LONE STAR STATE
IS SET TO ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. ALTHOUGH THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY IS DESIGNATED
AS BEING WITHIN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, THE SIGNAL FOR
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES HAS BEEN PERSISTENT,
WHICH WOULD EXPECTEDLY PROMPT AT LEAST SCATTERED IF NOT NUMEROUS
FLASH FLOODING CHANCES. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST/ADJACENT INTERIOR
WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER 80S AS FAR NORTH AS OREGON. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE
START OF AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FOCUSED ON THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHIFT
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH MID-80S FORECAST FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTH, WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE ONE
COOL SPOT AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
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