973
FXUS01 KWBC 110737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT THU MAY 11 2023
VALID 12Z THU MAY 11 2023 - 12Z SAT MAY 13 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENTERS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER HEAT ON THE WAY FOR THE WEST COAST BY
THIS WEEKEND...
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL HAVE NO SHORTAGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING SPAN EACH DAY, WHILE INCLUDING A MAJORITY OF THE
GREAT PLAINS. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
TEXAS TODAY, AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY WITHIN A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAY QUICKLY
SATURATE SOILS AND LEAD TO RAPID ONSET FLOODING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND NEARBY FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
URBAN AREAS AND FLOOD-PRONE REGIONS ARE ESPECIALLY AT RISK INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FORWARD MOTION BY
THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH,
DIMINISHING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AID IN A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL HELP FUEL THE CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SATURATED TERRAIN AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NEARBY SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY
TURN SEVERE FOR THIS REGION WHILE ALSO EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED ON
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS A FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED CHANCES THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST. THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
LIKELY LINGER FURTHER WEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL LOCALLY
FOR MULTIPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE LONE STAR STATE
IS SET TO ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. ALTHOUGH THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY IS DESIGNATED
AS BEING WITHIN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, THE SIGNAL FOR
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 5"+ HAS BEEN PERSISTENT, WHICH WOULD
EXPECTEDLY PROMPT AT LEAST SCATTERED IF NOT NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY. RESIDENTS, VISITORS, AND TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS
REGION ARE ADVISED TO PLAN AHEAD AND HEED ANY WARNINGS ISSUED
SHOULD SEVERAL FLASH FLOODING EVENTS MATERIALIZE. ADDITIONALLY,
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NUMEROUS DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL COULD
EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON
FRIDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM, A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST/ADJACENT INTERIOR
WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER 80S AS FAR NORTH AS OREGON. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE LOW 90S FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST,
INCLUDING PORTLAND, OREGON. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE START OF AN
EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FOCUSED ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMEMBER PROPER HEAT SAFETY TIPS
BY STAYING HYDRATED AND LIMITING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE
HOTTEST AFTERNOON HOURS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHIFT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH MID-80S FORECAST FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTH, WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE ONE
COOL SPOT AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
SNELL
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