685
FXUS01 KWBC 111933
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2023
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 12 2023 - 00Z SUN MAY 14 2023
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION. HEAVY RAINS
THAT HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
ARKANSAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINS PUSHES
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THESE REGIONS, BUT THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM
BEING AS HEAVY AS AREAS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS HAVE
EXPERIENCED.
WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS TO
ARKANSAS, IT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE PUSHING NORTHWARD TONIGHT FROM EASTERN
COLORADO, ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS ALREADY DEVELOPING EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO, ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA, FAR EASTERN
WYOMING, FAR EASTERN MONTANA, ALL OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA,
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE PROVIDING MUCH
NEEDED RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. WHILE THESE RAINS ARE MUCH NEEDED, THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL POSE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW, STRETCHING FROM NORTH TEXAS, ACROSS
OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, EASTERN COLORADO, EASTERN NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST
MISSOURI, SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS, LARGE HAIL, HIGH WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO AND ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS STRETCHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, THESE RAINS WILL BE BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFFECTING THIS
AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THESE REGIONS, WITH SOME OF THE RAIN AREAS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THESE REGIONS. SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST
THREAT.
WHILE THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL BE FORMING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BE LEADING TO
BUILDING HEAT ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON WITH THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE ONLY AREAS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
LIMIT SUNSHINE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
ORAVEC
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