951
FXUS01 KWBC 120722
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2023
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 12 2023 - 12Z SUN MAY 14 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
MEAN TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL EJECT WAVES OF POTENT UPPER ENERGY
INTO THE THE GREAT PLAINS, WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DRY-LINE
HAVE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN TODAY AS 2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND INTO
OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
FROM STORMS. ELSEWHERE, THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA TODAY AS POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FRONT RANGE
DIRECTS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS. 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, EASTERN NEBRASKA,
WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WHERE A FEW TORNADOES,
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TEXAS AND
THE GREATER SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS
WHERE BETWEEN 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THUS, ANOTHER MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN ACROSS TO THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS. A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ELSEWHERE ON
SATURDAY, THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, IOWA AND
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONSTITUTE
A 20-30 DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN PARTICULAR, COULD REACH OR BREAK HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS. ELSEWHERE, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES OF 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
WESTERN TEXAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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