190
FXUS01 KWBC 150712
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2023
VALID 12Z MON MAY 15 2023 - 12Z WED MAY 17 2023
..ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND FROM WEST INTO CENTRAL U.S.
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MOVING EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY...
RECORD BREAKING HEAT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND INTO
THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN ACROSS THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT WITH READINGS LIKELY FAILING TO DROP BELOW THE MID 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RIVALED IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINNING AROUND SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY TURN SEVERE, BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT OVER
SOUTH TEXAS, DUE IN PART TO THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE ALREADY OVER SATURATED SOILS
FROM THE RECENT DELUGE. ANOTHER VORT TO THE NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS A
RESULT OF TODAY'S CONVECTION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECE OF ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND PHASE WITH A DESCENDING
ZONAL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL DRIVE THE ORGANIZATION OF A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND GET THE
ONCE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOVING AGAIN. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FOCUS
ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA, KENTUCKY,
NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE, FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA,
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA DUE TO A
MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL OCCURRING
ALONG AN AXIS OF 1-2" EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND'S EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCENDING
OUT OF ALBERTA CANADA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL.
KEBEDE
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