904
FXUS01 KWBC 151950
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2023
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 16 2023 - 00Z THU MAY 18 2023
..ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST IN THE WEST.
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST & SOUTHWEST; MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE IN THE NORTHEAST MID-WEEK...
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ONCE AGAIN WELL ON ITS WAY TO SEEING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TODAY WITH MORE
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH EXPECTED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT
FEATURE AS MANY DAYS WITH RECORD HIGHS COMPARED TO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY, BUT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL
STILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE HARDER TO COME BY, BUT NUMEROUS RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
FARTHER EAST, A COMPLEX AND WINDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) POSTED A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON; ONE IN SOUTH TEXAS AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-OHIO RIVER
CONFLUENCE, WHERE STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME STORMS
COULD ALSO BE SEVERE, PARTICULARLY FROM THE OZARKS ON EAST TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/5) IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY, LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SETS UP A MORE ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) WITH SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. WPC ALSO HAS
A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
TRACKING OUT TO SEA WHILE ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. WPC HAS ISSUED AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK
AREA FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, A PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALOFT WILL PROMPT DAILY ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR DOWNPOURS THAT CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ISSUED A PAIR OF MARGINAL RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL; ONE IN CENTRAL OREGON AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY, ANOTHER FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON TO WESTERN
MONTANA ON TUESDAY, TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
IN THE SOUTHWEST, AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WPC POSTED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM FOR WEDNESDAY. LASTLY, A COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND MORNING LOWS ON THURSDAY COULD DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN SOME SPOTS.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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