583
FXUS01 KWBC 170731
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2023
VALID 12Z WED MAY 17 2023 - 12Z FRI MAY 19 2023
..ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WEST
...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...
...FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER
VORTICES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY.
THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND RE-INITIATE STORMS ALONG ITS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS, ENHANCED BY CYCLOGENESIS, WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS,
SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT. AN EAST COAST COLD FRONT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST IN THE COMING DAYS.
ANOMALOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
IN MANY PLACES, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPERIENCE THE
MOST ANOMALOUS WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. WARM LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S MAY END UP BREAKING RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DEEP UPPER
TROUGH COMBO TODAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING DOWN THE EAST
COAST WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AIR TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. FRIGID TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH
ANOMALIES RANGING BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST MAY TIE OR
BREAK RECORDS TONIGHT. CROPS AND LIVESTOCK THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADVERSE IMPACTS TONIGHT.
KEBEDE
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