336
FXUS01 KWBC 180719
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2023
VALID 12Z THU MAY 18 2023 - 12Z SAT MAY 20 2023
..ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WEST
...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S REPRESENTING A 20-30 DEGREE
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. THE EVENINGS WILL BE WARM TOO WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE
TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE WARM AIR WILL
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND A STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM AND LESS CONVECTIVE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, SOME INTENSE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT, FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
CENTRAL KANSAS/OKLAHOMA, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WASHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE PLAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
ELSEWHERE, A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTS WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF COASTAL GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THERE'S AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE. BETWEEN 1-3" OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4" POSSIBLE TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY, BUT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MODERATING.
KEBEDE
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