220
FXUS01 KWBC 182000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2023
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 19 2023 - 00Z SUN MAY 21 2023
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INTERIOR PORTION OF
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE
THREAT SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR FLOODING
WILL BE REDUCED ON FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, DUE TO
SANDY SOIL TYPES NEAR THE COAST.
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LOCATED
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING, EXTENDING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT WILL REIGNITE ON FRIDAY BUT SET UP
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
INTO MUCH OF TEXAS. ALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE THREAT
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID-MAY AVERAGES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING MANY LOCATIONS FROM
THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MOUNTAIN INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
ON FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
ALL OF MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY,
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF WASHINGTON,
OREGON AND IDAHO, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
OTTO
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