466
FXUS01 KWBC 190733
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2023
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 19 2023 - 12Z SUN MAY 21 2023
...SOGGY AND COOL WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HELPING TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR MID- TO LATE MAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY TO THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL ALSO HELP TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MOSTLY 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY, WITH LOW 70S GENERALLY IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED, BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE PARALLEL TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST/WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A POOL OF HIGHER GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE HEAVIER RAIN RATES. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED CENTERED
OVER THE ARKLATEX WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL RESIDES. IN
ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG ENOUGH WINDS ALOFT AT THE TAIL END OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WITH UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS INLAND
FROM THE GULF COAST, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
MEANWHILE, IN THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE
FOCUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
RUNNING UPWARDS OF 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN. MANY OF THESE HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN WILL BE NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS,
WITH MORNING LOWS ALSO BEING IN RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARM LOW
TERRITORY. THE ONE COOLER SPOT IN THE WEST WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS WELL AS MONSOON-LIKE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS AND DRY WASHES.
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