236
FXUS01 KWBC 220734
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 12Z MON MAY 22 2023 - 12Z WED MAY 24 2023
...SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY-TUESDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED IN THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER
VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN AS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP
PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS, AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOW/CLUSTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS RAIN FROM THE PROCEEDING DAYS
LEADS TO MORE SATURATED CONDITIONS, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY-TUESDAY. MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AREA, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
FLORIDA, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TEXAS.
TO THE NORTH, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW AND TEMPERATURES MILD. FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY-TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S FOR NEW ENGLAND
AND THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-80S, WITH
SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE MONDAY IN EASTERN MONTANA. FRONTAL SYSTEMS
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL HELP
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS AND OVER BURN
SCARS. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
COOL AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S. TO THE SOUTH, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, THE MID-80S TO MID-90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
VALLEYS, AND THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
COASTAL CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE 60S.
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