312
FXUS01 KWBC 222003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2023
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 23 2023 - 00Z THU MAY 25 2023
...SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY ...
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM GEORGIA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN AS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP PROMOTE
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW-MOVING STORMS UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS RAIN FROM THE PROCEEDING DAYS
LEADS TO MORE SATURATED CONDITIONS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE PANHANDLE.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AREA, WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. HIGHS
WILL SOAR INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN FLORIDA, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TEXAS.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE
MIDWEST/NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW AND TEMPERATURES MILD. FORECAST
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S FOR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY, RAIN IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT DIPPING
STEADILY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SHARP FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WHERE THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT COULD HELP TRIGGER SOME
HEAVY RAIN. BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
SHARP FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FROM CANADA, LEADING TO
STEADY OR EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM UPPER 80'S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN
SENSITIVE AREAS AND OVER BURN SCARS. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONTS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE COOL AND MOSTLY IN THE 60S. TO THE
SOUTH, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST ACTIVE FROM THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-80S TO
MID-90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN
COOLER IN THE 60S.
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