749
FXUS01 KWBC 230753
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2023
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 23 2023 - 12Z THU MAY 25 2023
...SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF A STALLED
FRONT LINGERING OVER FLORIDA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOCUSING
FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST INTO ALABAMA/GEORGIA TUESDAY AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN AS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO CLUSTERING, SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TOTALS. TO THE NORTHWEST, WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT OVER A SURFACE
TROUGH/PSEUDO-DRYLINE AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DAILY ROUNDS OF
STORMS. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING HERE AS WELL. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MORE ROBUST, SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE
MAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AREA, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID-70S. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
SOUTH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH FLORIDA, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND TEXAS, REACHING INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW ACROSS
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. MID-70S TO LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY 10-20
DEGREES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-80S. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COUPLE COLD FRONTS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, KEEPING UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN
SENSITIVE AREAS AND OVER BURN SCARS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S
TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING UP A BIT INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE
SOUTH, FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FOR
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER
90S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COASTAL CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN
COOLER IN THE 60S.
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