824
FXUS01 KWBC 231943
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2023
VALID 00Z WED MAY 24 2023 - 00Z FRI MAY 26 2023
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO AID IN PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SUNSHINE STATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GREATEST THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING AND FUTURE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH A LOW-END THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONFINE TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA.
ALONG THIS SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, A SEPARATE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EXISTS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING
NORTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AMPLE SPRINGTIME ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WITHIN ANY SLOW-MOVING STORMS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ALONG MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA MAY FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN COVERS
A LARGE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED AND IMPACTS CONSTRICTED TO NARROW CORRIDORS WHERE
STORMS OVERLAP AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES (10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE DATE) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL OFFER SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LOWS INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SNELL
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