655
FXUS01 KWBC 240755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2023
VALID 12Z WED MAY 24 2023 - 12Z FRI MAY 26 2023
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO ENTER
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...
A SUBTLY ACTIVE AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH MULTIPLE FOCUS
AREAS FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
OVER FLORIDA WILL HELP TO TRIGGER HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO
BRING DOWN RAIN CHANCES/RAINFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY. TO THE WEST,
VERY MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO INITIATE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE SEVERE, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE REGION UP BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND ATTENDANT
LEVEL OF RISK A BIT NEBULOUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RESIDUAL STORMS
AND CLOUD COVER AROUND. MID-70S TO LOW 80S CAN GENERALLY BE
EXPECTED, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AWAY FROM THE GLOOMIER CONDITIONS,
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY SNAKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN WILL BE YET ANOTHER TRIGGER OF STORMY WEATHER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO INITIATE DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS AND OVER BURN SCARS.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE WEST,
WITH 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MID- TO UPPER 90S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL SPREAD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S FOR THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FURTHER WEST, HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AND EARLY SUMMER-LIKE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, REACHING INTO THE MID-80S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
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