256
FXUS01 KWBC 241845
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2023
VALID 00Z THU MAY 25 2023 - 00Z SAT MAY 27 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING...
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
TWO MAIN AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NATION
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS AS A SLOW-MOVING LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE GREATEST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES, AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND
FRIDAY DUE TO DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MEANWHILE, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SUNSHINE STATE AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY. RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
CREATE ROUGH SURF AND BEACH HAZARDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, WEST COAST, AND
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION (OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST) TO END THE LAST FULL WEEK OF MAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL USHER IN BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FROST
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID-80S. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S.
SNELL
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