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FXUS06 KWBC 251923
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2023
DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS/BERING SEA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THOUGH THIS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS IMPRESSIVE IN THE FULL
HEIGHT FIELD, THE ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BARELY NEGATIVE. A TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL OR
WEST-CENTRAL CANADA, AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WITH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH AS FAR
WEST AS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TODAY’S MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
OF CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THIS AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DUE TO THE BRIEF INTERACTION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST NEAR THAT AREA. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM
MOST OF CALIFORNIA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. A SMALL AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FLORIDA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ACCOMPANYING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MODEST GULF INFLOW
FROM ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER
CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 40 PERCENT OVER FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA IN
ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE AREA JUST EAST OF FLORIDA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND HAS SOME
SUPPORT FROM CLIMATOLOGY. ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BASED ON
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OF AIR BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY SMALL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A SIMILAR LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS OVER THE CONUS, BUT THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INDICATED UPSTREAM. THESE CHANGES MAY BE RELATED TO HOW
THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS HANDLE THE EXPECTED RECURVATURE OF TYPHOON MAWAR
WHICH RECENTLY SWEPT THROUGH GUAM AND NEARBY NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA
REGION EARLIER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COLLAPSE, GIVING
WAY TO TROUGHING FROM SIBERIA DURING WEEK-2. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO
CONNECT WITH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGHS, WITH
CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ELONGATED TROUGH. THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE, WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH DEPICTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS
PERIOD, WHILE THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS IS
PREDICTED TO PERSIST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEVADA, THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA, AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS NEAR AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN WEEK 2,
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPAHEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE MODEST TILTS
IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH REPRESENTS RESIDUAL ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS
THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, IN THE
RELATIVELY WARM SUBTROPICAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ASSOCIATED
WITH RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND INCREASED RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, CONTINUING
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ALABAMA, AND THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST CONUS, EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE PLAINS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS, OFFSET BY MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE UPSTREAM CIRCULATION OVER
THE VICINITY OF ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020608 - 19910519 - 19780530 - 19780519 - 20040608
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910518 - 20020607 - 19780519 - 19780531 - 20040606
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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