002
FXUS01 KWBC 261817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2023
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 27 2023 - 00Z MON MAY 29 2023
...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
A VERY SLOW BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AN
ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST IN THE
WEST, BUT EMBEDDED STRONGER JET STREAKS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SURGES OF DRY AIR OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRAWING ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF MONTANA; WHILE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FROM MT THROUGH EASTERN
WY AND EASTERN CO, WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM INTO WEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE, AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS, WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. BY
SATURDAY, THE RISK IS MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THOUGH SHOULD SPAN THE LENGTH THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO SDAK/W NEB.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF E MT, PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE CAP ROCK ON FRIDAY AND EASTERN MT ON
SATURDAY WITH BROAD MARGINAL RISK IN CONNECTING AREAS THROUGH THE
LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON BOTH DAYS.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
FLORIDA WILL BRING DETERIORATING WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
GATHER SOME STRENGTH OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
AS IT HEADS NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW, GENERATING
HIGH WAVES MAKING FOR BEACH AND BOATING ACTIVITIES TO BE QUITE
HAZARDOUS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS ALREADY, LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE QUIET TREACHEROUS WITH A STORM WARNING
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/NWS FORECAST OFFICE IN
CHARLESTON AND PARTS OF SC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A BROAD GALE
WARNING UP THROUGH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SOUTHEAST VA/NORTH
CAROLINA WATERS. ONSHORE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH FUN AS WELL,
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NUMEROUS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ISSUED BY WPC FOR PARTS OF THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN FOR
SATURDAY, WHILE A BROADER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS, SO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
CLOUDY DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH NUMEROUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE UPSTATE SC AND
PARTS OF NC AND ONLY 60S IN THE LOW COUNTRY, GENERALLY 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD HAVE A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S.; THOUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY THE PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR BOTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GALLINA
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