500
FXUS01 KWBC 270806
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2023
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 27 2023 - 12Z MON MAY 29 2023
...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
A SLUGGISH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE WEST COAST. EMBEDDED
STRONGER JET STREAKS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SURGES OF DRY AIR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRAWING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE
LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF
MONTANA; WHILE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAD ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL/WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BECOME
MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE LENGTH THE HIGH PLAINS,
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AS SUCH, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
NORTHERN MONTANA TODAY WITH A BROAD MARGINAL RISK IN CONNECTING
AREAS THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT AGAIN COVER THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EXITED FLORIDA AND IS MOVING
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GATHERING SOME STRENGTH OVER THE WARM WATERS
OFF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AS THE CENTER HEADS NORTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN FORMING AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE TODAY WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CENTER BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CAN
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURFS, IN ADDITION TO LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE QUIET TREACHEROUS WITH A STORM WARNING
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/NWS FORECAST OFFICE IN
CHARLESTON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE,
SQUALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
WITH HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED BY WPC FOR PARTS OF THE NC/SC COASTAL
PLAIN TODAY, WHILE A BROADER SLIGHT RISK ENGULFS MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS, SO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
CLOUDY DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH NUMEROUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE UPSTATE SC AND
PARTS OF NC AND ONLY 60S IN THE LOW COUNTRY, GENERALLY 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER EARLY ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HEAVY RAINBANDS
ON THE OUTER PORTION OF THE STORM ARE NOW FORECAST TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY ON
MEMORIAL DAY.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD HAVE A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S.; THOUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY THE PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S.
KONG/GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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