435
FXUS01 KWBC 271640
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2023
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 28 2023 - 00Z TUE MAY 30 2023
...A CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
OVERALL, THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN
TROUGH, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF
MONTANA EACH DAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY; STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN/CAPROCK OF TEXAS; 4-10" OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN THAT AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
MONDAY THROUGH THE LENGTH THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT AGAIN COVER THE LENGTH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED
MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE TONIGHT
WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CENTER ON
SUNDAY MORNING. COASTAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CAN
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURFS, IN ADDITION TO LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL BE TREACHEROUS WITH A STORM WARNING ISSUED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/NWS FORECAST OFFICE IN CHARLESTON FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, SQUALLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND WITH HIGH RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT; SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY,
ONCE MOVING INLAND, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HEAVY RAINBANDS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM ARE FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO COVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON MEMORIAL DAY.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD HAVE A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
U.S.; THOUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY THE PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL -- BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE --
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
ROTH/KONG/GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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