597
FXUS01 KWBC 280801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 28 2023 - 12Z TUE MAY 30 2023
...A CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...WARMER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BUT MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
A SLUGGISH FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE TROUGHING ACROSS
BOTH THE WEST AND THE EAST COASTS AGAINST A SLOW-MOVING RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WILL HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF MONTANA EACH
DAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS PRONE TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS, AND THE RAIN
AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST HAS WEAKENED.
NEVERTHELESS. NEW BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER
BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. COASTAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ARE STILL EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURFS, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. AS THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
INLAND TODAY, THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE SLUGGISH AND BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS LINGERING
THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENJOY A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL U.S.; THOUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY THE
PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NOT
OPPRESSIVE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON MEMORIAL DAY BEHIND A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT.
KONG/ROTH
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