381
FXUS01 KWBC 281907
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
VALID 00Z MON MAY 29 2023 - 00Z WED MAY 31 2023
...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, AND
UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE NATION...
A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING CUTOFF
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, AS WELL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, WILL ALLOW FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY AND ALLOW FOR RENEWED DAILY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
SPAN FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW STORMS COULD
CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC WITHIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHILE ALSO
CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG
BEACHES.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SPANNING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE ALSO PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MOIST AIR
TO CONTINUE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO TURN SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT STRETCHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE
REGIONS, WITH A HIGHER THREAT OF SLOW-MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND MIDDLE-TO-LOWER TEXAS COASTS ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO ALSO ENTER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVER REGIONS WITH SWOLLEN RIVERS AND
HIGH STREAM FLOWS DUE TO SNOWMELT, AS WELL AS SENSITIVE TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH BURN SCARS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATION WILL FEATURE MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS EQUATES TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SNELL
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