102
FXUS01 KWBC 300801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2023
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 30 2023 - 12Z THU JUN 01 2023
...WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S., THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
...SHOWERY CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION, WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY
THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MAINLAND U.S. REMAINS
FAIRLY BLOCKED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, TOGETHER WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
WHILE A CLOSED UPPER HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST.
THE PREVAILING MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES. ACROSS
THESE REGIONS, ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MEANWHILE, SUSTAINED
MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH IMPULSES COMING OFF THE ROCKIES FROM THE MEAN TROUGH TO
PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL INCH ITS WAY
OFFSHORE TODAY AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER AIR
FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THE EAST COAST AND THE APPALACHIANS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TODAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BRINGS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT,
REACHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH COULD SPAWN A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT HEADS GENERALLY EAST TOWARD FLORIDA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT SOME LOCATIONS
A CLOSED UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE NATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRY
CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER HIGH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN CONTRAST, COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
KONG/ORAVEC
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