713
FXUS06 KWBC 301905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED FROM ABOUT THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA, AND ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING IN THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD IS
INDICATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA (INCLUDING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL
MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) UNDER THE PREDICTED
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI - OHIO - AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS EXTENSIVE
AREA, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF CALIFORNIA EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION, GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH BIAS-CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS (EXCEPT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED), THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
FLORIDA, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH
THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, THOUGH THE FLORIDA AND NEW
ENGLAND AREAS NOTED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TO LIE IN THE MOIST AIR JUST EAST OF A
MEAN TROUGH AXIS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 70
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER UPPER AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BASED ON INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OF AIR BETWEEN AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A 500-HPA TROUGH
OVER THE ALEUTIANS ARE FAVORED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN, OFFSET BY SMALL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS,
THOUGH WITH SOME RETROGRESSION EXPECTED OF THE LONGWAVE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND MOSTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA/SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA,
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED
FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THESE LONGWAVE FEATURES
OF THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER/DEAMPLIFIED COMPARED
TO THEIR 6-10 DAY COUNTERPARTS. THIS MAY BE DUE MORE TO SMOOTHING INHERENT IN
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OVER A SLIGHTLY LONGER AVERAGING PERIOD (7-DAYS INSTEAD OF
5-DAYS) RATHER THAN A TRUE WEAKENING OF THE LONGWAVES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 60 PERCENT FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THERE ARE
ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, FROM MAINE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED IN THAT REGION. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE COOLER BIAS-CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED GEFS SOLUTIONS
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE WARMER SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
BIAS-CORRECTED AND CALIBRATED CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA IN
PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. OVER THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA,
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND INTO MINNESOTA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, AND THE CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST REGION, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOBLEND AND
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, BROOKS RANGE, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED
MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AND THE AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
RELATIVELY SMALL-SCALE AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND NEW ENGLAND, IN PROXIMITY TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. TO THE REAR OF THIS TROUGH AXIS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF ALASKA IN WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL RAW
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS, AND THE AUTOBLEND AND CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN, OFFSET BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890516 - 19620605 - 19560604 - 19960610 - 19910607
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890516 - 19620605 - 19560603 - 19920509 - 19910607
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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