328
FXUS01 KWBC 311953
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUN 01 2023 - 00Z SAT JUN 03 2023
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE FROM THE
PLAINS TO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF TO BRING INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FLORIDA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD TYING/BREAKING WARMTH FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK...
A BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING INTO
JUNE. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ANOTHER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL REMAIN BLOCKED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE WEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
MANIFESTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE REVERSAL AT THE SURFACE,
WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES IN CONTRAST WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY CIRCLING THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. VERY MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO THE ROCKIES WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. TWO FOCUS
AREAS WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES WHERE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN EFFECT BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER
MORE SATURATED SOILS GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DUE TO A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE ORGANIZED, SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST,
WITH 70S AND 80S FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH MOSTLY 60S EXPECTED, AS WELL AS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FORECAST.
AN ORGANIZING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS KEPT THE
CHANCE OF ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LOW, VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. CONDITIONS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TROUGHS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO TYING/BREAKING A
FEW DAILY RECORDS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO POTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER FRIDAY
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
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