390  
FXUS06 KWBC 011902  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 01 2023  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2023  
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING 500-HPA  
FLOW CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASES OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE  
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH  
AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR MOST OF  
THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG RIDGE STRETCHING  
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA TO  
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS  
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A PERSISTENT TROUGH OR  
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST OVER CALIFORNIA WHILE GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS  
PREDICTED FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  
 
THE STRONG RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SUPPORTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.  
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FORECAST OVER CALIFORNIA PROMOTES INCREASED CHANCES OF  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS  
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED  
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH  
FORECAST NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. PREDICTED  
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA ALSO SUPPORTS ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.  
 
PREDICTED PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND NEAR A MEAN TROUGH  
PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST  
LIKELY FOR THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY,  
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  
PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH. ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE  
INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO THE POSSIBLE  
ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF PREDICTED  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO  
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED MEAN ONSHORE FLOW  
AHEAD OF AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON  
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2023  
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. MEAN BELOW  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,  
PUNCTUATED BY PREDICTED TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA  
COAST. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS TO NORTHEASTERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING FORECAST OVER  
WESTERN CANADA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND  
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE FORECAST  
OVER WESTERN CANADA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND  
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED  
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS.  
CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST  
REGION AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  
 
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO  
PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH FORECAST OVER OR NEAR CALIFORNIA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER  
CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED  
ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO WEEK-2, LEADING TO ELEVATED  
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED  
FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, IN THE VICINITY OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH.  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS MOST  
OF ALASKA, DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER,  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST  
OVER THE PACIFIC.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT H  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JUNE 15.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19890516 - 19960611 - 19620603 - 19780527 - 19560605  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19620603 - 19960611 - 19890516 - 19780527 - 19560604  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2023  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A  
UTAH N A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A  
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A  
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N N  
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B  
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B  
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N  
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N  
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A  
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N  
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B  
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N  
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N  
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2023  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A  
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N  
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A  
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS B A  
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A  
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B  
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N  
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N  
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N  
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A  
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N  
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N  
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N  
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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