005
FXUS01 KWBC 011951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2023
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 02 2023 - 00Z SUN JUN 04 2023
...HEAVY RAIN TO LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...INCREASING THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO END THE WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ONGOING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TONIGHT, FURTHER SATURATING TERRAIN AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY MORE
IMPACTFUL RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND EXITING FROM ABOVE THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL AID IN SPARKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF A NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS DRY LINE. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE TRACKING
OVER MUCH OF THE ALREADY SATURATED TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY HAS RECEIVED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST 30 DAYS, AS MUCH AS 600% ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH LEADS TO HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE SOILS UNABLE TO CONTAIN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. FLOOD
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES,
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WESTERN
TEXAS. SOME STORMS IN THESE AREAS COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. SCATTERED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
ISOLATED WHEN COMPARED TO THE ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY.
FARTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A
SEPARATE SYSTEM WITHIN THE ELONGATED WESTERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL FOCUS AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF WYOMING AND CENTRAL MONTANA. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
HELP FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR
SLOW-MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL OCCURS, NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HEED ANY
WARNINGS AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE
SOUTHEAST, MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRUNG-OUT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, AS WELL AS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF. UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LOW, A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND CONFINING TO THE GOLD COAST OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. ISOLATED FLASH, URBAN, AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE NORTHEAST, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL SPARK SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE DOWNPOURS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND OFFER A RELIEF FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER.
SPEAKING OF SUMMER, THESE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. HIGHS INTO UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S WILL EQUATE TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY. SOME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD ALSO BE AT
RISK THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE EARLY-SUMMER WARMTH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST, AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE EAST COAST COOLS DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
THANKS TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SNELL
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