512
FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 02 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING 500-HPA
FLOW CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASES OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR MOST OF
THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA TO NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH, A PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CALIFORNIA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PREDICTED TO THE EAST, ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO, EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE STRONG RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SUPPORTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FORECAST OVER CALIFORNIA PROMOTES INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS
TROUGH FORECAST NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION SUPPORT AN EXTENSION OF INCREASED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PREDICTED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA ALSO SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
PREDICTED PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHEAST NEAR A MEAN TROUGH
PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH. ENHANCED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO THE POSSIBLE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PREDICTED MEAN ONSHORE FLOW NEAR AND AHEAD OF AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2023
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. MEAN BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
PUNCTUATED BY PREDICTED TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
TROUGHING ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHEAST FAVOR A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF
FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT PLAINS. THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
REGION AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO
PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH FORECAST OVER OR NEAR CALIFORNIA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO EARLY
WEEK-2, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO INDICATED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK STATE, IN THE
VICINITY OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, DUE TO ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
EXTENSION OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE
PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620603 - 19890517 - 19960610 - 20030516 - 19820514
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620603 - 19890516 - 19960611 - 19780527 - 20030516
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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