173
FXUS01 KWBC 021947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 03 2023 - 00Z MON JUN 05 2023
..TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
...THERE ARE MODERATE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE & NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS; ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
..STORMY WEATHER TO LINGER IN THE ROCKIES & PLAINS
...PROLONGED SUMMER HEAT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S; COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST & MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
A LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS LEADING TO A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, WHILE A ROBUST RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S, AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. THIS PATTERN AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE TODAY, WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FORTUNATELY, THE STORM WILL TRACK SOUTH AND POSE NO THREAT TO
FLORIDA, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS NORTHERN CUBA. HOWEVER, DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL
1/4) IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AS WELL AS IN NEW ENGLAND AS A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMIEST WEATHER WILL RESIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO USHER IN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THESE REGIONS, WHO
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2-4
WEEKS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SENSITIVE SOILS AND DOWNPOURS
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, A PAIR OF MODERATE RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 3/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL
2/4) IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BOTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS AN ENHANCED RISK AREA (THREAT LEVEL 3/5) IN WEST TEXAS,
WITH A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) ENCOMPASSING
MORE OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTAIN A
COMBINATION OF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY
SATURDAY, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MARGINAL RISK FOOTPRINT STRETCHES
FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THE AREA MOST AT-RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK IS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, FOLLOWING A DAY OF RECORD HEAT IN THE NORTHEAST
AND GREAT LAKES, HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT
LAKES. RECORD WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. WHILE NOT AS MANY
RECORDS ARE SET TO BE BROKEN ON SUNDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE WEST COAST, PARTICULARLY AREAS
FARTHER INLAND, CAN ALSO EXPECT HOTTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS,
WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE STAYS ON THE SEASONABLY COOL SIDE.
AFTER A RATHER HOT FRIDAY IN THE NORTHEAST, A COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DELIVER A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR-MASS TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STICK AROUND IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS DUE TO
THE ONGOING CLOUDY AND STORMY STRETCH OF WEATHER.
MULLINAX
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