069
FXUS06 KWBC 051902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 05 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2023
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGHS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 60 METERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE LARGE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. THE FAVORED COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND NORTH TO INCLUDE
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, CONSISTENT WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AND
REFORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DUE IN PART TO WET TOPSOIL. DESPITE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, REFORECAST TOOLS
DIFFER WITH THE GEFS AND CANADIAN FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AND THE ECMWF HAVING NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND AN
EXPECTATION THAT ANY COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TIME OFF AROUND DAY 9,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALONG WITH MUCH OF
TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA.
ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (JUNE 11-12), A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND OHIO TO TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEST. PROBABILITIES ARE LARGE (ABOVE 60 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN WHICH ARE RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ELEVATES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, TEXAS, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED, BROAD 500-HPA
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THIS TROUGH ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH THIS
WET PATTERN ALONG WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AS WELL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS ACROSS THE EAST AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2023
THE PAIR OF TROUGHS, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ARE FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY DURING WEEK-2, WHILE A 500-HPA RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE AMPLITUDE
OF THIS RIDGE WITH MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 588-DM AS FAR NORTH AS
ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 594-DM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG WITH MEAN 7-DAY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER OUTCOME FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST
FOR WEEK-2, COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A TWO-CATEGORY CHANGE
IN YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK WAS NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS DUE TO THE PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITION AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS
500-HPA TROUGH.
ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF A 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE DRIER CLIMATOLOGY RESULTS IN THE
LARGEST PROBABILITIES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A BROAD TROUGH
ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION, WITH VARYING COVERAGE ACROSS THE CORN BELT, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND THE
MID-LATITUDE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO SHIFT WELL NORTHWARD DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF JUNE. THEREFORE, INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH WEEK-2, WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY LEANS TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH
ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910605 - 19820516 - 19620608 - 19940518 - 19720526
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910605 - 19620608 - 19820515 - 19720525 - 19940517
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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