171
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 06 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2023
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PAIR OF ANOMALOUS 500-HPA
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TODAY AND ITS REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTS
INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION
UNLIKE YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THE COVERAGE FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS EXPANDED TODAY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO. AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA. THESE
PREDICTED COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DUE IN PART TO WET TOPSOIL. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS
SUPPORT INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, ALONG WITH TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA.
AS THE 500-HPA TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OR CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAY
6 (JUNE 12). THEREFORE, ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, IS RELATED TO THE
PRESENCE OF A FRONT DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. TO THE NORTH OF THIS PREDICTED
FRONT, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE WEST. PROBABILITIES ARE LARGE (ABOVE 60 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN WHICH ARE RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ELEVATES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST, TEXAS, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED, BROAD 500-HPA
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THIS TROUGH ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH THIS
WET PATTERN ALONG WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY RECENT INCONSISTENT
TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2023
EARLY IN WEEK-2, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST, WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE 0Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO 588-DM AS FAR NORTH AS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH HEIGHTS PEAKING
NEAR 594-DM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LARGE PROBABILITIES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIMITED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, DUE TO PREDICTED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PRECEDING WEEK-2. BASED ON
AN EXPECTED VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS, NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.
ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE DRIER
CLIMATOLOGY RESULTS IN THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LIKELY
TO SUPPRESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND THE MID-LATITUDE STORM TRACK IS PREDICTED
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THEREFORE, INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR FLORIDA, THE GULF
COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. DURING THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WITH ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF REFORECAST TOOL, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SIGNALS AMONG THE TOOLS
RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEING FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC.
ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN THE BROAD, ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH WEEK-2, WHICH FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910605 - 19940518 - 19620609 - 19720525 - 19820517
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910606 - 19620609 - 19940517 - 19720525 - 19820516
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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