059
FXUS01 KWBC 061945
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 06 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUN 07 2023 - 00Z FRI JUN 09 2023
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE SOUTHWEST/CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHEAST
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...
...NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD AIR QUALITY ALERTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS FOR OTHER URBAN AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...
...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOWS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING IN BETWEEN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR
MANY LOCATIONS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,
APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST, AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S AND 60S, WITH 70S GENERALLY EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
SIMILARLY, MOST OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S
WHILE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE, INTO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH 80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED. IN CONTRAST, UNDER THE RIDGING STRETCHING NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AS
MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE I-5 URBAN
CORRIDOR AS WELL ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER NOTABLE EVENT IN THIS PATTERN, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, IS THE RECURRING,
WIDESPREAD SMOKE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE
TO WILDFIRES IN CANADA. NUMEROUS AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE ABOUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WHILE NOT QUITE AS THICK OR WIDESPREAD, SMOKE HAS ALSO
CONTINUED TO SPREAD FURTHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR MANY OF THE REGIONAL
URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION, BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY DUE TO A RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL, HAVE
PROMPTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE, EXPECT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WHERE MORE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
AND FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND IDAHO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE FROM RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR TERRAIN
SENSITIVE AREAS AS WELL AS BURN SCARS.
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