752
FXUS06 KWBC 071902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 07 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2023
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 6-10 DAY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WITH THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREEING ON TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS), ALTHOUGH WEAKER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, AND THE BERING SEA. A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PREDICTED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PERIOD.
BENEATH THE TROUGHING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED. IN THE EAST, THE WEAKER SOLUTION FOR THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO LOWER CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL-HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THESE REGIONS.
IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS, LINGERING ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BRINGS HIGH CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THESE REGIONS. IN ALASKA,
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE
EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO HELP LIMIT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST. MEANWHILE,
BEHIND THE 500-HPA TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AND ALSO NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE WEST, REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BENEATH THE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE IN REGIONS WITH THE LOWEST CLIMATOLOGIES ACROSS
PARTS OF NEVADA AND UTAH AS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES CONFIDENCE OFFSET BY A PATTERN
TRANSITION OCCURRING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2023
IN WEEK-2 THE 500-MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE
500-MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 6-10 PERIOD, EXPANDS NORTH
AND EAST. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGING BUT THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN THE WEST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES REMAINS FORECAST. RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TROUGHING IN THE
BERING SEA PERSISTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK-2.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST
SHIFTING OFFSHORE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST, CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROADLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE, EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, AS ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MAY
LIMIT WARM TEMPERATURES.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE 500-HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GEFS BRINGS SOME CHANCES FOR
ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR BEGINNING
OF WEEK-3 BUT THERE REMAINS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, BUT NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA. TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL IS FAVORED NORTHEAST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHERE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. IN ALASKA, CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW LEADS TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, THERE
REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
OFFSET BY SMALLER HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910604 - 19940519 - 19620608 - 19720525 - 19880604
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910606 - 19940517 - 19880607 - 19620609 - 19970607
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 17 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 21 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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