972
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 08 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2023
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 6-10 DAY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WITH THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREEING ON TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS), ALTHOUGH FURTHER EAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PREDICTED
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY
TRANSITION TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS.
BENEATH THE TROUGHING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN THE EAST, THE WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST SOLUTION FOR
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL-HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
NEAR-BY. IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS, THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST DISAGREE ON
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHANCES. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN AREA OF
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THIS REGION, WHILE THE GEFS EXPANDS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF A CANADIAN RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRINGS HIGH CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF AND GEFS BUILDING HEIGHTS TO 594
DM. IN ALASKA, ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST. IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, BEHIND THE 500-HPA TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE WEST,
REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BENEATH THE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE IN REGIONS WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS
OF NEVADA AND UTAH AS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TOOLS. IN MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES CONFIDENCE OFFSET BY A PATTERN
TRANSITION OCCURRING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2023
IN WEEK-2 THE 500-MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE
500-MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 6-10 PERIOD, EXPANDS NORTH
AND EAST. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGING BUT THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN THE WEST, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES REMAINS FORECAST. RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TROUGHING IN THE
BERING SEA PERSISTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD INTO WEEK-2.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST
SHIFTING OFFSHORE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. IN
THE WEST, CONTINUED ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CONTINUED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUES
TO FAVOR BROADLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AS ONSHORE
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT WARM TEMPERATURES.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE 500-HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
OR BEGINNING OF WEEK-3 BUT THERE REMAINS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
THEREFORE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR FLORIDA. TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WEST CONTINUES TO FAVOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
THE REGION. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NORTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHERE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. IN MUCH OF ALASKA, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, THERE REMAINS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REGARDING
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN OFFSET BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910604 - 19940519 - 19970607 - 20050525 - 19720525
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910605 - 19970606 - 19940518 - 20050527 - 19880603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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