658
FXUS06 KWBC 091902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 09 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 19 2023
THE 6-10 DAY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, HOWEVER VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE STRENGTHENED AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS).
OTHERWISE, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AND OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PREDICTED IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, THEREFORE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MEANWHILE, NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
BENEATH THE TROUGHING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS THAT THE
CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE
ECMWF HAS LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. IN THE
EAST, MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS FURTHER EAST,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH NEAR NORMAL-HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT
OF A CANADIAN RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AROUND 594 DM BRINGS CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE LOOKS SLIGHTLY DAMPED RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN WESTERN TEXAS. IN ALASKA, ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST. IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE 500-HPA TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND ALSO NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FURTHER
SOUTH RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ACROSS THE WEST, REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BENEATH THE TROUGH. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE IN REGIONS WITH LOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NEVADA AND UTAH AS SUPPORTED BY
THE REFORECAST TOOLS. IN MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
STATE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION DURING
THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES CONFIDENCE OFFSET BY A STRONGER
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 23 2023
IN WEEK-2 THERE ARE A PAIR OF 500-MB TROUGHS ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE CONUS. ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AN AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS IS FORECAST, AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
RIDGE, WELL-ESTABLISHED AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD, LOOKS LIKELY TO DECAY
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
RIDGING BUT THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS BEFORE THESE ANOMALIES TAPER OFF BY THE END OF WEEK-2. RIDGING
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUE TO
BRING WEEKLY ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING
WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. IN THE WEST, CONTINUED ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH CONTINUED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BROADLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT WARM TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD INTO THE REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE 500-HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY LESS EXPANSIVE RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
NORTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHERE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE GULF BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD OR BEGINNING OF WEEK-3 BUT THERE REMAINS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS, THEREFORE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR FLORIDA. ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST BEHIND A TROUGH. TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. IN MUCH
OF ALASKA, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, CONTINUED GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REGARDING THE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OFFSET BY SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970607 - 19910604 - 20050527 - 20060609 - 19830528
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970606 - 20050527 - 19650614 - 19910605 - 19550622
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 15 - 19 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 17 - 23 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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