568
FXUS01 KWBC 092018
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 10 2023 - 00Z MON JUN 12 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/PLAINS/ROCKIES TONIGHT; GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAIN IN
EFFECT OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STALLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER VERY SATURATED SOILS. MEANWHILE, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WESTERN IDAHO, WHERE
HIGH RAIN RATES AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CAN LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY, DUE, IN PART, TO THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
THESE AREAS, WHERE HIGH RAIN RATES AND A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ARKLATEX, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THUS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL,
SEVERE GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHERE SLIGHT RISKS OF
BOTH ARE IN EFFECT.
AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUMP COOL
PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT
BE LOW ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE STILL IN EFFECT DESPITE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A THOROUGH
CLEARANCE OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEBEDE
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