015
FXUS01 KWBC 100755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 10 2023 - 12Z MON JUN 12 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...
...SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY TO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WHILE LINGERING HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ARKLATEX INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BUILDS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE NATION. STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO
THE ARKLATEX TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE REGION
OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO. A FRESH INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL AID IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, WHICH PROMPTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INITIALLY SPANNING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AREAS
OF CONVERGENCE AND A SCATTERED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR
TODAY, A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED. BY SUNDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE REGION
AND NEARBY TENNESSEE VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, MAYBE NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
CORRIDORS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. MEANWHILE, A
WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
OF THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST HAS BEEN
STARVED OF RAINFALL AS OF LATE, SO ANY RAIN COULD PROVE TO BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS OPPOSED TO HAZARDOUS. FARTHER WEST, A LINGERING
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING NEAR WET ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MONDAY
CONSISTS OF SUSTAINED COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AS
WELL AS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE LONE STAR STATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALSO FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONSIST OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE EARLY-SEASON HEAT SERIOUSLY
AND FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY TIPS.
SNELL
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