576
FXUS01 KWBC 102001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 11 2023 - 00Z TUE JUN 13 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL SHIFT OVER INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, BUT
WILL ALSO STILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BUILDS INTO MUCH OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NEW WEEK AHEAD, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE NATION. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
PARTICULAR WILL SEE A NOTABLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HEADING
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FOCUS ON CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ADJACENT AREAS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND THE POOLING
OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, AND PRODUCE
CONCERNS FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES FLASH FLOODING. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SOME POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEPICTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-SOUTH. A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED LOCALLY, AND THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZE. AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL TEND TO SEE
THE GREATEST THREAT OF ANY FLASH FLOODING AND THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPICTED OVER THIS REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
OVERALL, THE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY DRY AND ARE LOCALLY IN A MODERATE DROUGHT.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY BENEFICIAL FOR MOST AREAS GIVEN
THE VERY DRY SPRING THAT HAS UNFOLDED THIS SEASON.
MEANWHILE, WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF NEW UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ONCE AGAIN HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH MONDAY
CONSISTS OF SUSTAINED COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AS
WELL AS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE LONE STAR STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALSO FOUND THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONSIST OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE EARLY-SEASON HEAT SERIOUSLY
AND FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY TIPS.
SNELL/ORRISON
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