512
FXUS01 KWBC 110742
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 11 2023 - 12Z TUE JUN 13 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY, AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...
...TRIPLE DIGIT AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS WEEK COMBINED
WITH ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STRETCHING FROM THE EAST COAST TO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPARK NUMEROUS CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN SEVERE, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A BROAD ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS
AND CREATE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND NEARBY ADJACENT STATES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT THESE REGIONS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AS OF LATE AND WOULD
LARGELY BENEFIT FROM A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG A
LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. SIMILAR TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THIS
REGION HAS BEEN STARVED OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS, SO MOST RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL, BUT COULD COME DOWN
HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO LEAD TO SMALL STREAM AND LOCALIZED URBAN
FLASH FLOODING.
FARTHER WEST NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TURN SEVERE AND CREATE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO, WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED DUE TO A WET SPRING. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH TO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS
WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS
BACK NORTH AND USHERS IN MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH
AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS, SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A CONCERN FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY WILL OFFER DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
HAS ALSO PROMPTED A CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN ORDER TO FURTHER
HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER 48 THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FEATURE BUILDING HEAT ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER-90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF TEXAS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD BE THREATENED ON TUESDAY FOR PLACES SUCH AS AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE THIS EARLY SUMMER
HEAT SERIOUSLY AND FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S. LOW 90S ARE ALSO FORECAST TO ENTER THE
OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE NATION THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY, EQUATING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED
TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE, SUSTAINED BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES, WITH COOLER WEATHER ALSO EXPECTED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO WET WEATHER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SNELL
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