498
FXUS01 KWBC 111958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUN 12 2023 - 00Z WED JUN 14 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND IN ISOLATES THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES...
...TRIPLE DIGIT AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS WEEK
COMBINED WITH A TRAILING FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND STRETCH BACK TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
SEVERE, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A BROAD
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAY ACCOMPANY THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS AND CREATE AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THESE
SAME AREAS AND ALSO UP INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF
THE RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND ONGOING LOCALIZED DROUGHT
CONCERNS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL
INITIALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT,
AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE SHOULD FOSTER NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW YORK
AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE AREAS HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY DRY THIS
SPRING, AND THE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL, HOWEVER THERE
MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS SET UP.
FARTHER WEST, A FRONT WILL REMAINS DRAPED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHICH
COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION
SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE AND CREATE A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES DEPICT A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD CREATE FLASH
FLOODING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED DUE TO
A WET SPRING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPICTED FOR EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE THREAT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
THE SOUTH TO THE MID-SOUTH AND ADJACENT DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE
GULF COAST STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH AND USHERS IN MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING IT
SHOULD HELP FOCUS AN AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS SET UP.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL OFFER DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, AND FAR WEST TEXAS, THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS WHICH COUPLED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER 48 THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FEATURE BUILDING HEAT ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF TEXAS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN BY TUESDAY. RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO TAKE THIS EARLY SUMMER HEAT SERIOUSLY AND FOLLOW PROPER
HEAT SAFETY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MEANWHILE, SUSTAINED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES, WITH
COOLER WEATHER ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO
WET WEATHER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
SNELL/ORRISON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page