722
FXUS01 KWBC 120745
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUN 12 2023 - 12Z WED JUN 14 2023
...MULTI-DAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...
...TRIPLE DIGIT AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...
A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EACH DAY
BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THREATS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. FOR TODAY,
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT A REGION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS,
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTS GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STRUNG
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HERE,
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2"
ARE FORECAST. WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVERLAP, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS LOW-LYING AND URBAN REGIONS. FARTHER WEST
ALONG THIS SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FLASH FLOODING AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. SINCE THIS REGION HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY WET
PAST FEW MONTHS, TERRAIN WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME STORMS BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE COULD ALSO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL.
ELSEWHERE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND ATTACHED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE VERY DRY MONTH SO
FAR. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE
RULED OUT SHOULD OVERLAPPING THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR OVER URBANIZED
AREAS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
FINALLY MAKES ITS EXIT EASTWARD. THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALSO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH OF A DISINTEGRATING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD IMPACT SENSITIVE TERRAIN BETWEEN THE SIERRA NEVADA
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
THROUGH THIS WEEK AS WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 110S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, SUSTAINED BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
SNELL
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