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FXUS06 KWBC 121922
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 12 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH
AMERICA. SOLUTIONS FAVOR TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA. WEAK RIDGING IS
ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE CONUS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM EXCEEDING 60% CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70%. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. UNDER WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
GUIDANCE FROM FORECAST MODELS AND INTERNAL FORECAST TOOLS ARE MIXED WITH REGARD
TO TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND
NORTHERN UTAH WHICH ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY QUITE DRY IN LATE SPRING. ODDS ALSO
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LIMITS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
THIS MOIST FLOW AND RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER HUDSON BAY ALSO
RESULT IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN
FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN MODEL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN FOR
THE 6-10 PERIOD, WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTHEASTERN CANADA.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVERALL HAVE A LOWER MAGNITUDE AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
EASES SOMEWHAT AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST COAST SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAT ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES
GIVEN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, ONCE
AGAIN WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER MINNESOTA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKEN, PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND THUS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA
REGION FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
CONTINUES WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE OF
THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES DO NOT EXCEED 50% AND
MOSTLY STAY BELOW 40%. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
REGIONS. CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA
OVER ALASKA, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOUT
AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050529 - 19980607 - 19650616 - 20060611 - 19550624
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050529 - 19970610 - 20060612 - 19650615 - 19920618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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