881
FXUS06 KWBC 131903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 13 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. SOLUTIONS
FAVOR TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA. WEAK RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE GREAT BASIN WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80%
FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. UNDER WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT. GUIDANCE FROM FORECAST MODELS AND INTERNAL FORECAST TOOLS ARE
MIXED WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA BUT GENERALLY FAVOR A TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY QUITE DRY IN LATE SPRING. ODDS ALSO TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
MID-ATLANTIC WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FLOW
PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH
TEXAS LIMITS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS MOIST FLOW AND RESULTS IN A TILT
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER HUDSON BAY ALSO RESULT IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN MODEL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN FOR
THE 6-10 PERIOD, WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA.
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVERALL HAVE A LOWER MAGNITUDE AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
EASES SOMEWHAT AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST COAST SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAT ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES
GIVEN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, ONCE
AGAIN WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER MINNESOTA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
WEST COAST WEAKEN, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA REGION FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN
FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE OF
THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES DO NOT EXCEED 50% AND
MOSTLY STAY BELOW 40%. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH
PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA OVER ALASKA, RESULTING IN A
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050529 - 19980607 - 19650617 - 20060611 - 19700621
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980609 - 20050529 - 19970610 - 19700616 - 19920618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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