557
FXUS01 KWBC 132000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUN 14 2023 - 00Z FRI JUN 16 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TODAY...
...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT MOST OF TEXAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK; CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE NEARBY GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO OVERLAP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS GRADUALLY FOCUSING EASTWARD ATOP THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, THE FORECAST FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES
ASIDE, THE AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS (WHICH INCLUDES THE DFW
METRO) PRIMARILY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
ARKLAMISS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE SIERRA NEVADA, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES, AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITHIN WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A FEW
STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES GIVEN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE OVERHEAD, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SENSITIVE TERRAIN INCLUDING BURN
SCARS. THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN VERY WET AS
OF LATE, WHICH MAY LOCALLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING
DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
(2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT TODAY. FURTHER WEST, A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO SHIFT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD YIELD SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AS
BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE EXTENDED DRY SPELL OVER THIS REGION.
FOR MUCH OF TEXAS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR
SEVERAL UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OUTDOORS. OUTSIDE OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 110S. THE
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY
THURSDAY INTO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE SUMMER HEAT IS
NOT ATYPICAL THROUGHOUT THE LONE STAR STATE, THE UPCOMING HOT
WEATHER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK A FEW DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY TIPS BY STAYING HYDRATED AND
LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. IN
CONTRAST TO THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY OVER TEXAS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS (LEVEL 2/3) ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE DRYLINE GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED (LEVEL 1/3) RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
ASHERMAN/SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page