181
FXUS01 KWBC 140752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2023
VALID 12Z WED JUN 14 2023 - 12Z FRI JUN 16 2023
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TODAY...
...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, GREAT
BASIN, AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
...RECORD-BREAKING AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TEXAS...
NUMEROUS STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY BETWEEN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR A LINGERING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND RACE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INCLUDE PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT ENTERING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, STRONG WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR, AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES.
OUT OF THE MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, SWATHS OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS THAT OVERLAP SIMILAR AREAS COULD
CREATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR URBAN CORRIDORS AND LOW-LYING REGIONS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES, WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS THROUGHOUT THE AFFECTED REGIONS SHOULD HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS AND HAVE A PLAN SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING EASTWARD FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AT TIMES AND WILL BE SEEN AS MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY MAY AND FIRST HALF OF JUNE.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. FARTHER WEST, INITIAL BROAD
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES MAY ALSO PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.
SUMMER HEAT IS FORECAST TO SOAR THROUGHOUT THE LONE STAR STATE
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND, WITH ONLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
OMITTED FROM TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHEN COMBINED WITH
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF COAST, HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 120
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS IF SPENDING
EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS OR IN AREAS WITHOUT PROPER AIR
CONDITIONING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE ANOMALOUS HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND GRADUALLY INTO MORE OF WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHILE ALSO THREATENING SOME DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT
SAFETY AND HEED WARNINGS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND WEST TEXAS.
SNELL
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